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Predicting politics / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.

By: Material type: TextTextPublisher: Columbus : Ohio State University Press, [2002]Copyright date: ©2002Description: viii, 170 pages ; 23 cmContent type:
  • text
Media type:
  • unmediated
Carrier type:
  • volume
ISBN:
  • 0814208983
  • 9780814208984
  • 0814259847
  • 9780814259849
Subject(s): DDC classification:
  • 327.101 21
LOC classification:
  • JZ1234 .B84 2002
Contents:
1. Predicting Politics. Organization of the Book. A Shift from Realism? Why Game Theory Analysis? Social Forces as Context. Conclusion -- 2. Path Interdependence: An Illustration. Text of the Concordat of Worms. The Power of the Pope. A Brief Historical Review. The Model. Implications for Pope and King. Narrative Account of Evidence. The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment. Summary -- 3. Tools for Predicting Politics. Logical Foundation of the Model. Estimating the Model. Developing the Data. Model Output. Prediction and International Relations. Limitations -- 4. The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property. Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution. Predicting the Cold War's End. Counterfactual Histories. Conclusions -- 5. Global Democratization. Helsinki: The New International Environment. The Global Swing toward Democracy. EUM and Governance, 1980-2000. EUM and the Future of Democratization. Random Shocks and Robustness -- 6. Democratization and Domestic Pressures. Simulating Russia's Future. Simulating China's Future -- 7. War in the Future. Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income. Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration. Democracy, War, and the Future. Flash Points and the Future. Conclusions.
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Includes bibliographical references (pages 161-166) and index.

1. Predicting Politics. Organization of the Book. A Shift from Realism? Why Game Theory Analysis? Social Forces as Context. Conclusion -- 2. Path Interdependence: An Illustration. Text of the Concordat of Worms. The Power of the Pope. A Brief Historical Review. The Model. Implications for Pope and King. Narrative Account of Evidence. The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment. Summary -- 3. Tools for Predicting Politics. Logical Foundation of the Model. Estimating the Model. Developing the Data. Model Output. Prediction and International Relations. Limitations -- 4. The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property. Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution. Predicting the Cold War's End. Counterfactual Histories. Conclusions -- 5. Global Democratization. Helsinki: The New International Environment. The Global Swing toward Democracy. EUM and Governance, 1980-2000. EUM and the Future of Democratization. Random Shocks and Robustness -- 6. Democratization and Domestic Pressures. Simulating Russia's Future. Simulating China's Future -- 7. War in the Future. Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income. Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration. Democracy, War, and the Future. Flash Points and the Future. Conclusions.

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