Predicting politics / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.
Material type: TextPublisher: Columbus : Ohio State University Press, [2002]Copyright date: ©2002Description: viii, 170 pages ; 23 cmContent type:- text
- unmediated
- volume
- 0814208983
- 9780814208984
- 0814259847
- 9780814259849
- 327.101 21
- JZ1234 .B84 2002
Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Book | City Campus City Campus Main Collection | 327.101 BUE (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Issued | 27/10/2024 | A259897B |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 161-166) and index.
1. Predicting Politics. Organization of the Book. A Shift from Realism? Why Game Theory Analysis? Social Forces as Context. Conclusion -- 2. Path Interdependence: An Illustration. Text of the Concordat of Worms. The Power of the Pope. A Brief Historical Review. The Model. Implications for Pope and King. Narrative Account of Evidence. The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment. Summary -- 3. Tools for Predicting Politics. Logical Foundation of the Model. Estimating the Model. Developing the Data. Model Output. Prediction and International Relations. Limitations -- 4. The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property. Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution. Predicting the Cold War's End. Counterfactual Histories. Conclusions -- 5. Global Democratization. Helsinki: The New International Environment. The Global Swing toward Democracy. EUM and Governance, 1980-2000. EUM and the Future of Democratization. Random Shocks and Robustness -- 6. Democratization and Domestic Pressures. Simulating Russia's Future. Simulating China's Future -- 7. War in the Future. Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income. Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration. Democracy, War, and the Future. Flash Points and the Future. Conclusions.
Machine converted from AACR2 source record.
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