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_aJZ1234 _b.B84 2002 |
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_a327.101 _221 |
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_aBueno de Mesquita, Bruce, _d1946- _9245056 |
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245 | 1 | 0 |
_aPredicting politics / _cBruce Bueno de Mesquita. |
264 | 1 |
_aColumbus : _bOhio State University Press, _c[2002] |
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264 | 4 | _c©2002 | |
300 |
_aviii, 170 pages ; _c23 cm |
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336 |
_atext _btxt _2rdacontent |
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337 |
_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia |
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338 |
_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier |
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504 | _aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 161-166) and index. | ||
505 | 0 | 0 |
_g1. _tPredicting Politics. _tOrganization of the Book. _tA Shift from Realism? _tWhy Game Theory Analysis? _tSocial Forces as Context. _tConclusion -- _g2. _tPath Interdependence: An Illustration. _tText of the Concordat of Worms. _tThe Power of the Pope. _tA Brief Historical Review. _tThe Model. _tImplications for Pope and King. _tNarrative Account of Evidence. _tThe Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment. _tSummary -- _g3. _tTools for Predicting Politics. _tLogical Foundation of the Model. _tEstimating the Model. _tDeveloping the Data. _tModel Output. _tPrediction and International Relations. _tLimitations -- _g4. _tThe End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property. _tApplication of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution. _tPredicting the Cold War's End. _tCounterfactual Histories. _tConclusions -- _g5. _tGlobal Democratization. _tHelsinki: The New International Environment. _tThe Global Swing toward Democracy. _tEUM and Governance, 1980-2000. _tEUM and the Future of Democratization. _tRandom Shocks and Robustness -- _g6. _tDemocratization and Domestic Pressures. _tSimulating Russia's Future. _tSimulating China's Future -- _g7. _tWar in the Future. _tRelationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income. _tRelationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration. _tDemocracy, War, and the Future. _tFlash Points and the Future. _tConclusions. |
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_aInternational relations _xForecasting _9319493 |
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_aWorld politics _y1989- _9370595 |
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