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035 _a(DLC) 2001006329
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_dATU
050 0 0 _aJZ1234
_b.B84 2002
082 0 0 _a327.101
_221
100 1 _aBueno de Mesquita, Bruce,
_d1946-
_9245056
245 1 0 _aPredicting politics /
_cBruce Bueno de Mesquita.
264 1 _aColumbus :
_bOhio State University Press,
_c[2002]
264 4 _c©2002
300 _aviii, 170 pages ;
_c23 cm
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _aunmediated
_bn
_2rdamedia
338 _avolume
_bnc
_2rdacarrier
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 161-166) and index.
505 0 0 _g1.
_tPredicting Politics.
_tOrganization of the Book.
_tA Shift from Realism?
_tWhy Game Theory Analysis?
_tSocial Forces as Context.
_tConclusion --
_g2.
_tPath Interdependence: An Illustration.
_tText of the Concordat of Worms.
_tThe Power of the Pope.
_tA Brief Historical Review.
_tThe Model.
_tImplications for Pope and King.
_tNarrative Account of Evidence.
_tThe Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment.
_tSummary --
_g3.
_tTools for Predicting Politics.
_tLogical Foundation of the Model.
_tEstimating the Model.
_tDeveloping the Data.
_tModel Output.
_tPrediction and International Relations.
_tLimitations --
_g4.
_tThe End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property.
_tApplication of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution.
_tPredicting the Cold War's End.
_tCounterfactual Histories.
_tConclusions --
_g5.
_tGlobal Democratization.
_tHelsinki: The New International Environment.
_tThe Global Swing toward Democracy.
_tEUM and Governance, 1980-2000.
_tEUM and the Future of Democratization.
_tRandom Shocks and Robustness --
_g6.
_tDemocratization and Domestic Pressures.
_tSimulating Russia's Future.
_tSimulating China's Future --
_g7.
_tWar in the Future.
_tRelationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income.
_tRelationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration.
_tDemocracy, War, and the Future.
_tFlash Points and the Future.
_tConclusions.
588 _aMachine converted from AACR2 source record.
650 0 _aInternational relations
_xForecasting
_9319493
650 0 _aWorld politics
_y1989-
_9370595
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_b11-07-17
_c27-10-15
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