TY  - BOOK
AU  - Bueno de Mesquita,Bruce
TI  - Predicting politics
SN  - 0814208983
AV  - JZ1234 .B84 2002
U1  - 327.101 21
PY  - 2002///]
CY  - Columbus
PB  - Ohio State University Press
KW  - International relations
KW  - Forecasting
KW  - World politics
KW  - 1989-
N1  - Includes bibliographical references (pages 161-166) and index; 1; Predicting Politics; Organization of the Book; A Shift from Realism?; Why Game Theory Analysis?; Social Forces as Context; Conclusion --; 2; Path Interdependence: An Illustration; Text of the Concordat of Worms; The Power of the Pope; A Brief Historical Review; The Model; Implications for Pope and King; Narrative Account of Evidence; The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment; Summary --; 3; Tools for Predicting Politics; Logical Foundation of the Model; Estimating the Model; Developing the Data; Model Output; Prediction and International Relations; Limitations --; 4; The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property; Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution; Predicting the Cold War's End; Counterfactual Histories; Conclusions --; 5; Global Democratization; Helsinki: The New International Environment; The Global Swing toward Democracy; EUM and Governance, 1980-2000; EUM and the Future of Democratization; Random Shocks and Robustness --; 6; Democratization and Domestic Pressures; Simulating Russia's Future; Simulating China's Future --; 7; War in the Future; Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income; Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration; Democracy, War, and the Future; Flash Points and the Future; Conclusions
ER  -