Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce,  1946- <br/><br/>
Predicting politics / 
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. 
 - viii, 170 pages ;  23 cm 
<br/><br/>Includes bibliographical references (pages 161-166) and index. 
<br/><br/> Predicting Politics.  Organization of the Book.  A Shift from Realism?  Why Game Theory Analysis?  Social Forces as Context.  Conclusion --  Path Interdependence: An Illustration.  Text of the Concordat of Worms.  The Power of the Pope.  A Brief Historical Review.  The Model.  Implications for Pope and King.  Narrative Account of Evidence.  The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment.  Summary --  Tools for Predicting Politics.  Logical Foundation of the Model.  Estimating the Model.  Developing the Data.  Model Output.  Prediction and International Relations.  Limitations --  The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property.  Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution.  Predicting the Cold War's End.  Counterfactual Histories.  Conclusions --  Global Democratization.  Helsinki: The New International Environment.  The Global Swing toward Democracy.  EUM and Governance, 1980-2000.  EUM and the Future of Democratization.  Random Shocks and Robustness --  Democratization and Domestic Pressures.  Simulating Russia's Future.  Simulating China's Future --  War in the Future.  Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income.  Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration.  Democracy, War, and the Future.  Flash Points and the Future.  Conclusions.  1.  2.  3.  4.  5.  6.  7. 
<br/><br/><label>ISBN: </label>0814208983 9780814208984 0814259847 9780814259849 
<br/><br/><label>LCCN: </label>2001006329 
<br/><br/><label>Subjects--Topical Terms: </label><br/>International relations--Forecasting<br/>World politics--1989-
<br/><br/><label>LC Class. No.: </label>JZ1234  / .B84 2002 
<br/><br/><label>Dewey Class. No.: </label>327.101